Global mobile phone market to slow to 1.4% growth in 2012
According to the research done by IDC ,Worldwide Mobile Phone Growth Expected to Drop to 1.4% in 2012 Despite Continued Growth Of Smartphones.
According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors will ship more than 1.7 billion mobile phones this year. In 2016, IDC forecasts 2.2 billion mobile phones will be shipped to the channel.
Global smartphone volume in the fourth quarter of 2012 (4Q12) is expected to reach 224.5 million units, representing 39.5% year-over-year growth due primarily to strong consumer demand. For the year, smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 45.1% year over year to 717.5 million units. Strong smartphone growth is a result of a variety of factors, including steep device subsidies from carriers, especially in mature economic markets where carriers resell the majority of smartphones, as well as a growing array of sub-US$250 smartphones in emerging markets.
Smartphone Operating Systems
[list style=”unordered” type=”type1″] Android to be the clear leader in the smartphone mobile operating system race, thanks in large part to a broad selection of devices from a wide range of partners. Samsung is the leading Android smartphone seller though resurgent smartphone vendors LG Electronics and Sony, both of which cracked the top five smartphone vendors during 3Q12, are not to be overlooked. IDC believes the net result of this will be continued double-digit growth throughout the forecast period.
iOS will maintain its position as the clear number two platform behind Android at the end of 2012 and throughout the forecast. The popularity of the iPhone across multiple markets will drive steady replacements and additional carrier partners will help Apple grow iOS volume. However, the high price point of the iPhone relative to other smartphones will make it cost prohibitive for some users within many emerging markets.
The BlackBerry OS will grow slowly but largely maintain share over the coming years following the BlackBerry 10 launch next year. The new operating system and devices will be valued by some longtime BlackBerry fans, particularly those who have waited for the new OS as Research In Motion delayed its release. This will allow the company to maintain pockets of strength in higher-growth emerging markets such as Indonesia and various Latin American countries.
Windows Phone will battle with BlackBerry for the number three spot in 2013, but will gain further clarity in the years that follow. Windows Phone will build on the progress it made in 2012, with Nokia establishing its presence and HTC solidly jumping back into the race. Moreover, contributions by Samsung, ZTE, and Huawei will help grow its footprint.
Linux will trail the market leaders throughout our forecast though it is expected to be the dark horse of the forecast. K-Touch has quietly built its Linux volumes this year while Haier recently released its first Linux smartphones. In addition, multiple platforms are expected to announce and launch their Linux-based smartphones in 2013, including Samsung’s Tizen and Jolla’s SailFish.
Top Smartphone Operating Systems, Forecast Market Share and CAGR, 2012–2016
Growth in the worldwide mobile phone market is forecast to slow to 1.4 percent this year, due to the weak global economy, IDC predicts. This is the lowest annual growth rate in three years, despite a projected record number of smartphone shipments in the holiday season. Vendors are estimated to ship more than 1.7 billion mobile phones this year, rising to 2.2 billion in 2016.
For the fourth quarter of 2012, IDC forecast smartphone shipments of 224.5 million, up 39.5 percent year-over-year. Over the full year 2012, smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 45.1 percent to 717.5 million units. Smartphone growth is driven by new flagship devices, such as Apple’s iPhone 5 and Samsung’s Galaxy S3, as well as lower-cost Android phones shipped to China and other emerging markets.
IDC expects Android will maintain its lead among smartphone OS, with a share of 63.8 percent in 2016. Windows Phone will show the fastest growth over the period, at a CAGR of 71.3 percent, to reach an estimated market share of 11.4 percent in 2016.